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Two quick baseball thoughts on this fine weekend day…

It was fun to see Orlando Cabrera back in Boston last night. I’m trying to remember if he’s the first member of last year’s team to play against the Sox in Fenway. Ramiro Mendoza made a cameo appearance when the Yankees were in town for the ring ceremony, but he wasn’t on the active roster. Pokey Reese’s new team, the Mariners, were in town for early May, but Pokey was on the DL and not with the team that weekend.

On the one hand, it would’ve been nice to see OCab get his ring last night at Fenway, but the Sox already sent somebody out to Anaheim for an individualized presentation. I can understand why the Sox wouldn’t want to take a break to honor an opposing player prior to a game.

Whatever the case, anybody else think it was fitting that Edgar Rentaria made a nice play to get OCab at first following his first at bat?

Octavio Dotel’s having what sounds like Tommy John surgery that’s expected to knock him out of baseball for 2 years. This is after 4 doctors recommended rehab over surgery.

Tough break for the A’s, as Billy Beane likely planned on trading Dotel at some point to some pitching-hungry playoff contender (see Billy Taylor).

This news also makes appreciate the fact that that the Sox were able to get somebody like Curtis Leskanic last year. Leskanic was never really healthy and pitched ineffectively before getting his release from the Royals. The Sox then picked him up and he pitched relatively effectively through the remainder of the regular season and playoffs. It sounded like Leskanic’s shoulder was basically held together by spit and bailing wire by the end, but he pitched when he probably shouldn’t have because he wanted to win.

Granted, there are differences between Leskanic and Dotel. We have no idea how much pain Dotel’s actually experiencing. Dotel’s 5 years younger than Leskanic and probably feels he has a longer career ahead of them. Dotel hasn’t yet made the jump to a contender, but that was probably just a matter of time.

Leskanic’s willingness to pitch through pain was a big factor in the Sox coming back against the Yankees in the ALCS — without Leskanic, the Sox would’ve been forced to either use a lesser pitcher or extend a tired pitcher during Game 4. There’s no guarantee that the Yankees wouldn’t have scored the go-ahead run under one of these scenarios.

I wonder if Dotel’s decision will end up haunting some team that ends up with a shorter bullpen come October.

If I’m correctly remembering what I heard earlier in the week, then I should’ve taken the Over.

Seriously, I didn’t expect a game like this. I was stunned when the Pats jumped out to a 21 point lead.

I expected the Pats to have a decent rushing game. Considering the Pats had a not so grand total total of 5 rushing yards on 6 attempts, “decent” wasn’t all that strict a standard to meet, relatively. In fact, 3 of the 5 Patriots credited with rushing attempts exceeded the Patriots total from the previous Pats-Steelers match-up.

Against a tough defense like the Steelers, 126 yards is definitely a good showing. The Patriot’s final 2 scoring drives covered 10:32 and 13 of the 20 plays were running plays (13 runs, 7 passes, 1 field goal). On the final scoring drive, 9 of the 10 plays were running plays. The Steelers had a roughly 3 minute edge in time of possession, but the Patriots were able to run down the clock and score points when the Steelers cut the Patriots’ lead to 11 points.

The improved running game also kept the Steelers from sitting back in pass coverage, which may have helped the Patriots convert on several long pass plays.

The big difference in the game was turnovers. Ben Roethlisberger threw 3 interceptions and Jerome Bettis had a fumble (though it was on what would have been a failed 4th down conversion). The Patriots didn’t have a single turnover. The Pats converted the Steelers’ miscues into 24 points.

I’ve watched Roethlisberger play a few games this year and I think he’s the real deal (well, duh). Personally, I’d love to see him outplay both Eli Manning and Philip Rivers over the course of their respective careers. Overall, he had a rough game, but you can’t help but be impressed by how he came out in the 3rd quarter. He led the Steelers on scoring drives the first three times they had the ball in the second half. There are a number of quarterbacks in the NFL who wouldn’t have been able to do that.

Of his three interceptions in tonight’s game, only the final one seemed truly egregious — Roethlisberger overthrew his intended receiver and Eugene Wilson made a tremendous diving catch. Roethlisberger’s first INT was thrown a bit behind the receiver, but it was still deflected twice before Wilson came down with the ball. On the second INT, Rodney Harrison simply cut in front of the intended receiver and had basically clear sailing to the end zone.

I think the Steelers are looking good for the future. They have a young quarterback with a good head on his shoulders. Their defense is solid. They have depth at wide receiver so they can spread the ball around. They move the ball well on the ground. Assuming they can adequately manage their salary cap, I expect them to be among the AFC’s elite for the next few years.

This year, though, the Patriots are heading back to the Super Bowl, this time facing off against the Philadelphia Eagles. Thus, I think Robert Kraft will be hoisting another Lombardi Trophy above his head in 2 weeks. Of course, that prediction isn’t anything new for me.

Now, that I’ve said I like the NFL on iTunes deal and talked about the Patriots perhaps making the Super Bowl, I guess I should share my thoughts on the upcoming Patriots – Steelers game (even if I seem to be the only person who likes the deal).

This ended up being longer than I expected, so here’s the Cliff’s Notes version — I think the Pats will win. Of course, I’m a homer and I’ve made the same prediction prior to every Pats game over the last 2 seasons. Granted, I’ve correctly called 32 of the last 36 Pats games using this approach, but that’s beside the point

Seriously, though, I do think the Pats will win, but I think the game will be close – within a touchdown. Both teams are extremely good (heck, the Steelers are currently 16-1 this season), but the Pats have a few edges.

Injuries

Back on Halloween, the Steelers pounded the Patriots 34-20. Since Bill Belichick took over the Patriots prior to the 2000 season, the Patriots are 15-4 the second time they play a given team during a single season. Two of those loses came during the 2000 season, during which the Pats went 5 and 11.

update: Here’s the stat I actually wanted to quote last night: “Bill Belichick’s Patriots are undefeated the last 13 times they’ve faced a [starting?] quarterback for the second time in a season.”

Back when the Pats and Steelers played last fall, the Patriots were decimated by injuries. Starters Corey Dillon (running back), Deion Branch (wide receiver), Tyrone Poole (cornerback), Patrick Pass (fullback), and Tom Ashworth (right tackle) all missed the game due to injuries. Starting CB Ty Law and left tackle Matt Light both left the game with injuries; neither returned (Law, in fact, ended up missing the remainder of the season).

Two and a half months later, the Patriots are much healthier than they were during week 8. Dillon, Branch, Pass, and Light are all expected to play. Niether of the Tys will be playing, but their replacements have had 10 weeks to gel and they’ve mostly acquitted themselves quite well — Randall Gay has exceeded all expectations and Troy Brown has improved by leaps and bounds as he’s received on-the-job training. Earthwind Moreland has been beaten more often than I’d like to see (to the point where Brown, a wide receiver, has passed him on the depth chart), but during last weeks’ Colts game, Moreland was benched in favor of the recently-acquired Hank Poteat.

Starting defensive end Richard Seymour may not play, as he’s still recovering from an injury suffered near the end of the regular season.

I believe the Steelers were missing one starter during the week 8 match-up, but I not certain. Perhaps one of their starting linebackers?

Ben Roethlisberger and the Patriots’ Coaching Staff

Ben Roethlisberger has definitely had an amazing rookie year. Defense-adjusted Points Above Replacement (DPAR) is a metric developed by the folks at Football Outsiders. For quarterbacks, DPAR “represents the total number of points scored due to plays where this QB passed or carried the ball, compared to a replacement-level QB in the same game situations.” Roethlisberger had the 10th highest DPAR in the NFL. Keep in mind, he didn’t become a starter till week 3 and he sat out week 17.

That said, Roethlisberger clearly struggled last week against the Jets. I can’t really say if his thumb was bothering him or if he was nervous or if the Jets defense was just that good. However, he also suffered against the Jets in Week 14, completing only 9 of 19 passes and throwing 2 interceptions. Looking at the numbers, the Jets defense isn’t that good. I’m going to point towards another Football Outsiders stat, Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Overall, the Jets had the 14th worst DVOA in the NFL. If we look just at pass defense, the Jets fall all the way to 8th worst.

The Patriots defense is much better than the Jets — overall the Pats had the 6th best DVOA in the league. Looking at the just the passing numbers, the Pats fall to 11th overall, but that’s a far cry from the the Jets’ ranking.

I think it’s a safe bet that Bill Belichick and Romeo Crennel (the Pats’ defensive coordinator) have watched film of how the Jets played against Roethlisberger. These are two of the best defensive minds in the game and I believe they’ll come up with a game plan to exploit any weaknesses that find in Roethlisberger’s game. Furthermore, the Patriots have shown time and time again that they have the players on the defensive side of the ball to implement pretty much any game plan the coaches develop.

Kickers

If it’s a close game like I’m expecting, the game could come down to a battle between the kickers. The Steelers escaped last week because Doug Brien blew two opportunities to kick the go-ahead field foal in the final minutes of regulation. The Patriots don’t have Doug Brien kicking field goals, they have Adam Vinatieri, who’s perhaps the best clutch kicker in the game today. Between the 2001 and 2003 playoffs, Vinatieri’s lined up for 4 game winning kicks and made them all.

The Steelers are a good, hard-nosed football team, but I think Patriots are just better, the Halloween Horror notwithstanding. I’m expecting a close game. Then again, either team could decide to do their best impression of the Colts and we could end up with a blowout.

Prediction: Pats 17, Steelers 14

(The numbers I’ve sited either come from my own memories, Football Outsiders, or Pro-Football-Reference.com. The Patriots injury list from the first Steelers game came from Management Secrets of the New England Patriots, by James Lavin)

Associated Press:

The National Football League on Tuesday announced an agreement with Audible Inc., an online distributor of audiobooks and other spoken-word programming, to make recordings of this year’s remaining playoff games available for portable audio players, including Apple Computer Inc.’s iPod.

This is pretty cool. If the Patriots win another Super Bowl, I’ll definitely purchase the broadcast. I’m particularly impressed that they’re going to offer the local broadcasts in addition to the national feed. WBCN has run brief highlights from the Pats two Super Bowl victories, but the NFL has never granted permission for BCN to replay the entire broadcast.

Granted, the NFL’s refusal to let the Patriots’ broadcast partner replay the game might have something to do with the fact that the NFL is able to charge $10 to download the game.

Conversely, Major League Baseball offers low quality video downloads of complete games for just $3.95. However, MLBs Digital Download Services uses Microsoft Digital Rights Management, so the videos aren’t playable on the Mac, nor can you burn them DVDs for playback on TV.

So, assuming the Patriots are able to take home this year’s Lombardi trophy, the next step is to get the Super Bowl telecast onto my computer and replace the oh-so-annoying Fox broadcasters with the quality work of WBCN broadcast team, Gil Santos and Gino Cappelletti.

So, any chance the NFL will make older Super Bowls available at a later time? They certainly have the audio archived in a safe location. I’d pay to get downloads of the Pats 2001 and 2003 Super Bowl victories. I do think that the sounds of past glories would make a good soundtrack to a lazy Saturday or Sunday afternoon.

I think I’m finally ready to write about the Red Sox winning the 2004 World Series. I still have a hard time being coherent, though, because when I think about it, I eventually get this really dopey grin on my face and start daydreaming. So, expect some ramblings.

I’m having a hard time putting into words what the Red Sox winning the World Series means. Without a doubt, I’m ecstatic about it. It’s not just that the Red Sox won, though. It’s what this victory means for the people I care about.

I started watching baseball around 1987. I started my path to diehard-om with the 1988 Morgan’s Magic team. Since that time, there have been some disappointments. The 1988, 1990, 1995, and 1998 seasons coming to screeching halts with first round playoff sweeps. Roger Clemens loosing it in the 1990 ALCS and getting tossed in the second inning of Game 4. The phantom tags in the 1999 ALCS. Until last year’s ALCS, though, I’d never seen the Red Sox lose a close series. In ‘88 and ‘90, the Sox were swept 4-0 by the Oakland A’s. In ‘95 and ‘98, the Cleveland Indians swept the Sox 3-0. In ‘99, the Yankees ended the Red Sox season with a 4-1 series victory.

The ‘03 ALCS was different experience for me. For a while, it looked like the Red Sox were ready to vanquish the Yankees and go the World Series, only to have the victory snatched away by the bat of Aaron Boone. That was the type of loss my parents and my grandparents grew up with — 1947, 1967, 1975, 1978, and 1986.

This World Series victory wasn’t just the first on I witnessed. It was the first one my dad witnessed. It was the one my grandfathers didn’t witness. The day after the Sox won, I saw both my dad and my uncle and both of them said they didn’t expect to see this day. The day after the Series ended, I spoke with an old college roommate, who happened to be a Yankees fan. As we talked about those who waited their entire life to see the Red Sox win and those who waited and never saw the Red Sox win, he noted that the room seemed to be getting a little dusty.

I loved the Patriots Super Bowl victories, but the Red Sox victory just means so much more because of all the history.

OK, time for random thoughts…

The “See Red Sox win World Series” item on my mental checklist has been marked complete. The “Buy Theo Epstein a beer” item has been added to the mental checklist.

Derek Lowe: The man has been everything during his time in Boston. Failed Starter. Setup man. Stud Closer. Failed Closer. Stud Starter. Maddeningly Inconsistent Starter. Mental Gidget. Male Bimbo. Over the past two regular seasons, DLowe has been the most inconsistent starter in baseball. When he’s good, he’s nearly unhittable. When he’s bad, he posts perhaps the worst ERA among full-time starters. However, when the playoffs roll around, Derek Lowe is The Man. Last year, he shut down Oakland in the clinching game 5 of the ALDS. This year, he won the clinching games of all three playoff series — coming out of the bullpen in game 5 of the ALDS and shutting down the Angels so David Ortiz could hit the walk-off home-run and starting the clinchers of the ALCS and World Series, shutting down both the Yankees and the St. Louis Cardinals. Not included in those victories was Lowe’s game 4 appearance in the ALCS where he held the Yankees in check and allowed David Ortiz to win another game with a walk-off homer.

DLowe likely pitched his last game for the Red Sox on Wednesday night. There have been times when he was the guy I wanted on the mound. There have been times where I’d hoped his teammates would duct tape him to the clubhouse mound. Right now, none of that matters. When I think of DLowe, I’ll think of the guy who won the clincher of the 2004 World Series. If you gotta go, I can’t think of many better ways to do it.

Pedro Martinez: Another guy who could be gone, pending contract negotiations. The Pedro of old is certainly gone. It used to be you expected a victory when he was on the mound and you hoped for something spectacular. Today, there’s some question when he takes the mound — will Pedro be mortal or will there be a spark of the old brilliance? Game 3 of the World Series could be his defining moment. 7 shutout innings where he and Jason Varitek out-thought the Cardinals hitters.

Curt Schilling: What’s left to say? If you have any question about his toughness, read Will Carrol’s Triumph of the Schill. If that’s too long, just consider this quote from Will Carrol’s weblog: “Everything [the sutures] attach to is tearing away from the bone.”

Keith Foulke: When the A’s has a 2-0 lead in the 2003 ALDS, I mentioned to a coworker that he would be a free agent after the season and wouldn’t he look good in a Red Sox uniform?

Granted, I think pretty much any stud free agent would look good in a Red Sox uniform, but I’d like to think I was particularly prescient about this one He doesn’t throw 100 miles an hour; he just gets guys out.

I don’t really have a problem with Manny Ramirez winning the Series MVP. Unlike the ALCS, there was no one guy who stood head and shoulders above everybody else. I do wish Foulke had gotten more consideration. Like Adam Vinatieri on the Pats, he’s not the guy who gets the headlines but he is the guy standing in the middle of it when the game’s on the line.

I could probably write something about every member of this team (though I don’t know much about Sandy Martinez or Adam Hyzdu), but then this could end up being longer than the last thesis paper I wrote, so I’m going to cut this short.

Thank you Theo Epstein, John Henry, Terry Francona, and all of the members of the 2004 World Champion Boston Red Sox.

Unbelievable. Sox win. Conscious thoughts later…

It’s the 9th inning, the Red Sox are leading the Cardinals 4-0 in Game 3, and a faint chant of “Let’s Go Red Sox” can be heard at Busch Stadium.

That last part’s gotta hurt.

Johnny Damon wakes up in a big way. Derek Lowe with the performance of his life. David Ortiz and Mark Bellhorn go deep. Sox win 10-3.

I’m officially out of things to say. Bring on the NL.

Sweet Redemption. Capital S, Capital R. That’s the story of Game 6.

Curt Schilling went from the edge of the operating table to the center of the world, giving up 4 hits and 1 run over 7 innings. An insanely guts performance, as we were constantly reminded when Fox insisted on showing the red substance on Schilling’s ankle. Was it blood or Marcaine? The Fox announcers weren’t sure.

(Terry Francona just said the Schilling’s ankle was sutured. I’m guessing it was most likely blood.)

(Yup, Schilling confirms it was blood.)

Sweet Redemption for Curt Schilling after his injury shortened Game 1 performance.

Mark Bellhorn provided the margin of victory with his 4th inning 3-run homer. He’s been swinging the bat much better over the course of the last two games (even if he can’t lay down a bunt .

Sweet Redemption after all of his strikeout problems in the beginning of the series.

No team in history has won a playoff series after trailing 3-0. Then again, only one team in history has managed to tie a series after trailing 3-0.

Sweet Redemption.

I have to think the Red Sox are in better shape, pitching wise, for tomorrow’s game. For both teams, it’s going to be all hands on deck in the bullpen, with tomorrow’s started TBD.

It sounds like the Sox will pick between Derek Lowe and Tim Wakefield, both of whom have pitched well over the last 3 games.

The Yankees apparently haven’t made any sort of decisions about who’s pitching tomorrow, but Kevin Brown is easily the most rested of the Yankees pitchers. Javier Vazquez might be available on three day’s rest. Neither pitched well Saturday night. If the Yanks hadn’t exploded for 19 runs, the story of Game 3 might have been the Yankees two big off-season pitching acquisitions tanking.

If it is Brown, Yankees fans have to be concerned about the fact that the Sox can send up 6 left-handed hitters (Damon, Nixon, and Ortiz are lefties, Varitek, Mueller, and Bellhorn are switch hitters). It seemed like lefties really raked Brown during his abbreviated start.

I am so unbelievably pissed at ARod right now. Not only did he wind up and take a swing at a pitcher’s arm, but he had the temerity to argue that he did nothing wrong.

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Bullshit. He wound up and took an open-handed slap. Thankfully, it was Bronson Arroyo’s left arm and not his pitching arm.

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ARod needs to have a chat with the young lady in left field who admitted Bellhorn’s ball left the yard in spite of the fact she was a Yankees’ fan. At least somebody knows the value of truth.

I’m watching the umpire’s press conference and it’s amazing. Randy Marsh, this evening’s first base umpire, is talking about the umpires’ review process. Saying the Francona requested the meeting after Bellhorn’s home run. Admitting that the umps have come a long way in trying to make sure that the call’s correct. Admitting that he had no view of the ARod slap because he was screened by Doug Mientkiewicz and that Joe West had the best view of the play coming up the line from home plate.

Marsh just gave a wonderful press conference. He explained everything clearly and concisely. I am extremely impressed.

Granted, there are still some issues with strike zone consistency, but the quality of the umpiring has come insanely far over the last few years. Kudos.

Here we go again.

When my brother and I left Fenway Park Saturday night, the obituary for the 2004 Red Sox was already forming in my head. Emotionally, I was done. There had been good time, there had been bad times, and I was completely drained.

By the time Sunday’s game rolled around, I was at peace. I was ready to enjoy the game, win, lose, or draw. I can honestly saw I enjoyed the process of Game 4 more than any of the previous ALCS match-ups. I think I would have felt that way had David Ortiz not launched Paul Quantrill’s 12th inning pitch into the Red Sox‘ bullpen.

When the Sox took a 2-0 lead over the Yankees in Game 5, I told myself I wasn’t going to get irrationally exuberant.

When the Sox came back to tie the game at 4 in the 8th, I appreciated it.

When Fox showed Tim Wakefield, Derek Lowe, and Curt Schilling walking towards the bullpen, I swear I wasn’t getting goose-bumps. It must’ve been a draft.

During the extra innings, I looked down and saw I’d taken off my watch and was clutching it in my fist, the metal arm band digging into my skin. At that point, I realized the Sox had managed to pull me back in. Damn it all.

If the Sox manage to pull this thing out, David Ortiz has to be the ALCS MVP. He’s won the last two games with walk-off hits and he started the 8th inning rally with a massive homer off the Volvo sign behind the Green Monster (mmm, dented Volvo).

The Sox bullpen has been absolutely superb the last two nights. They threw at least 14 innings of scoreless relief (I don’t remember how many outs there were after Mike Timlin gave up his final run). Tim Wakefield pitched like it was the 2003 ALCS (minus the annoying walk-off homer, of course). Bronson Arroyo pitched like he did in the ALDS, as opposed to his performance in his aborted Game 3 outing.

It’s almost unfair that Mariano Rivera gets charged with a blown save for work in the 8th inning. He came into a nearly untenable situation, with runners on 1st and 3rd with nobody out. According to Tango Tiger’s Run Expectancy Matrix, the average team gives up 1.9 runs per inning when faced with that situation. Maybe the number’s don’t completely work, since the Sox already scored one run on Ortiz’ homer off Tom Gordon, but Rivera still held the Sox to 1 run on a Jason Varitek sac fly.

However, he gave up the lead, so he gets a blown save. I believe the Fox graphic said that was the first time Rivera had ever blown back to back saves in the playoffs.

Hell, now I’m psyched for Game 6. Schilling versus Jon Lieber. Bring it on.

Oh yeah, there’s one other reason for Irrational Exuberance — Tony Clark’s ground-rule double in the 9th inning that prevented Ruben Sierra from scoring. Now, I don’t believe in curses, but the Red Sox never get that bounce! I mean, if that ball’s an inch lower, it stays in the field of play and Sierra scores easily. Instead, Sierra’s sent back to third and Keith Foulke slams the door.

I hate to say it, but that was a Yankees Bounce. I’d say that was Jeffrey Maier snatching the ball away from Tony Tarasco or Chuck Knoblauch missing Jose Offerman by about a foot with the tag and still getting the call, except the rules were interpreted correctly this time.