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	<title>Comments on: Patriots-Steelers Pregame Thoughts</title>
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	<link>http://raoli.com/2005/01/19/patriots-steelers-pregame-thoughts/</link>
	<description>random and occassionally coherent musings</description>
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		<title>By: Eric Blair</title>
		<link>http://raoli.com/2005/01/19/patriots-steelers-pregame-thoughts/comment-page-1/#comment-217</link>
		<dc:creator>Eric Blair</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 23 Jan 2005 08:08:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.raoli.com/?p=252#comment-217</guid>
		<description>&lt;p&gt;Damn. I accidentally deleted Erik Barzeski&#039;s original comment while I was cleaning some comment spam. Here&#039;s the text of the original comment:&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Let&#039;s be real. You have arguably a far more impactful injury this time: Seymour. And Light and Law left well after the game was decided. We ran the ball for 221 yards against your vaunted defense, and little of that had to do with the secondary.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Let&#039;s also not forget the Steeler injuries - Staley pulled his hammy in that game and left. Our starting corner (Scott) was out. Harrison played in place of Haggans. Our all-world nose tackle Casey Hampton has been gone all year. Kendrell Bell was out.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Pats fans continue to have entirely too much faith in their coach. The players are the ones that get it done, and the &quot;second time&quot; statistic is one of the dumbest ever invented. Ben wasn&#039;t supposed to have won &lt;em&gt;every&lt;/em&gt; start this year, either, but that didn&#039;t stop him. The Steelers had no business winning last week (more turnovers, more big plays) yet did so.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Corey Dillon is not the impact-maker Pats fans think he is - the Steelers have shut down running games far better than his. And shut his down in the past four years, too.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Moreland is gonna be matched up on one of three people: Randle El, Ward, or Burress. You think that&#039;s a matchup you&#039;re going to win consistently? And good luck with Poteat: the Steelers didn&#039;t like what they saw in him when they had him.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;The Jets played a good game and Ben made some bad throws. The Jets D is better than the Patriots D, though. They&#039;re tougher up the middle and they&#039;re tougher deep. Simple-minded use of stats fails to take into consideration how a defense plays against a certain kind of offense. Here&#039;s another stat that&#039;s far more startling: 221 yards rushing on your Patriots D. Time of Possession is another good one: 42:58 to 17:02.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Bellicheck may watch the film, and he may make the adjustments, but he simply doesn&#039;t have the personnel the Jets have.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;So, there&#039;s my quick rebuttal. The Patriots won&#039;t be able to stop the Pittsburgh running game, the Steelers D is better, and the Steelers, as a whole, have more big play potential than the Pats.&lt;/p&gt;
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Damn. I accidentally deleted Erik Barzeski&#8217;s original comment while I was cleaning some comment spam. Here&#8217;s the text of the original comment:</p>

<p>Let&#8217;s be real. You have arguably a far more impactful injury this time: Seymour. And Light and Law left well after the game was decided. We ran the ball for 221 yards against your vaunted defense, and little of that had to do with the secondary.</p>

<p>Let&#8217;s also not forget the Steeler injuries &#8211; Staley pulled his hammy in that game and left. Our starting corner (Scott) was out. Harrison played in place of Haggans. Our all-world nose tackle Casey Hampton has been gone all year. Kendrell Bell was out.</p>

<p>Pats fans continue to have entirely too much faith in their coach. The players are the ones that get it done, and the &#8220;second time&#8221; statistic is one of the dumbest ever invented. Ben wasn&#8217;t supposed to have won <em>every</em> start this year, either, but that didn&#8217;t stop him. The Steelers had no business winning last week (more turnovers, more big plays) yet did so.</p>

<p>Corey Dillon is not the impact-maker Pats fans think he is &#8211; the Steelers have shut down running games far better than his. And shut his down in the past four years, too.</p>

<p>Moreland is gonna be matched up on one of three people: Randle El, Ward, or Burress. You think that&#8217;s a matchup you&#8217;re going to win consistently? And good luck with Poteat: the Steelers didn&#8217;t like what they saw in him when they had him.</p>

<p>The Jets played a good game and Ben made some bad throws. The Jets D is better than the Patriots D, though. They&#8217;re tougher up the middle and they&#8217;re tougher deep. Simple-minded use of stats fails to take into consideration how a defense plays against a certain kind of offense. Here&#8217;s another stat that&#8217;s far more startling: 221 yards rushing on your Patriots D. Time of Possession is another good one: 42:58 to 17:02.</p>

<p>Bellicheck may watch the film, and he may make the adjustments, but he simply doesn&#8217;t have the personnel the Jets have.</p>

<p>So, there&#8217;s my quick rebuttal. The Patriots won&#8217;t be able to stop the Pittsburgh running game, the Steelers D is better, and the Steelers, as a whole, have more big play potential than the Pats.</p>]]></content:encoded>
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	<item>
		<title>By: Erik J. Barzeski</title>
		<link>http://raoli.com/2005/01/19/patriots-steelers-pregame-thoughts/comment-page-1/#comment-216</link>
		<dc:creator>Erik J. Barzeski</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 22 Jan 2005 06:35:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.raoli.com/?p=252#comment-216</guid>
		<description>&lt;p&gt;Well, the Dolts played like it. The Pats dropped 8 and 9 men, and the Dolts gave up on their running game (which was working) far too soon.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;It&#039;ll be a good, close game. My coach sucks, and if the Steelers win, it will be in spite of him, not because of him.&lt;/p&gt;
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Well, the Dolts played like it. The Pats dropped 8 and 9 men, and the Dolts gave up on their running game (which was working) far too soon.</p>

<p>It&#8217;ll be a good, close game. My coach sucks, and if the Steelers win, it will be in spite of him, not because of him.</p>]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: Eric Blair</title>
		<link>http://raoli.com/2005/01/19/patriots-steelers-pregame-thoughts/comment-page-1/#comment-215</link>
		<dc:creator>Eric Blair</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 21 Jan 2005 20:35:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.raoli.com/?p=252#comment-215</guid>
		<description>&lt;p&gt;Like I said, I&#039;m a homer. I know more about the Pats than about the Steelers.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Yes, Light didn&#039;t leave the game till the third quarter, when the game was already decided. Law, however, left during the Steelers third possession of the game, according to the &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.patriots.com/games/index.cfm?ac=gamereportdetail&amp;pid=9517&amp;pcid=41&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;game notebook&lt;/a&gt; on Patriots.com. At that point, the Pats were actually leading, 3-0. Two plays later, Burress beat Randall Gay to give the Steelers a 7-3 lead.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;I&#039;m not saying that losing Seymour won&#039;t hurt. However, I think it  easier to adapt to losing a player prior to the game the
an it is to adjust on the fly.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;You&#039;re right, I did underestimate the Steelers injuries. I believe Bell was the linebacker who I was remembering. I knew Bettis had a decent game, but I forgot he came in because of the Staley  injury.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;I do put a lot of faith into Belichick&#039;s game-planning skills. I also put a lot of faith in the player&#039;s ability to execute the game plan. That combination has worked pretty well over the last few years.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;I&#039;ve also seen Dillon&#039;s numbers against the Steelers over the past few years. I don&#039;t believe he&#039;s going to have the same sort of day he had against Indy, but his presence likely means that the Pats will have more than 6 rushing attempts on Sunday. This could keep the Steelers from selling out in pass coverage and should also increase the time of possession.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;I&#039;d be surprised if Moreland even plays. Lately, Asante Samuel and Randall Gay have been the starters, Troy Brown&#039;s been the nickelback, and Poteat came off the bench as the 4th corner/garbage time player. I know Poteat&#039;s certainly not a world-beater, but he inspires slightly more confidence than Earthwind.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;I just took a quick look at the Jets&#039; scores during the regular season. It actually looks like they have a number of low scoring games with a couple of high scoring affairs. I went to the numbers because I recalled not being too impressed when I watched them play, but I only saw three Jets games all season and one of those was one of the Jets&#039; worst games.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;I think you might be underestimating the Pats linebackers and safeties. Yes, they had a bad day against Pittsburgh. However, in the two games against the Jets, the Pats held the league&#039;s leading rusher to 103 yards and the Jets rushing attack as a whole to 152 yards.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;If both teams play the way they&#039;re capable of playing, it&#039;ll be close. What kind of fan would I be if I didn&#039;t pick my team in a close game? :-)&lt;/p&gt;
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Like I said, I&#8217;m a homer. I know more about the Pats than about the Steelers.</p>

<p>Yes, Light didn&#8217;t leave the game till the third quarter, when the game was already decided. Law, however, left during the Steelers third possession of the game, according to the <a href="http://www.patriots.com/games/index.cfm?ac=gamereportdetail&amp;pid=9517&amp;pcid=41" rel="nofollow">game notebook</a> on Patriots.com. At that point, the Pats were actually leading, 3-0. Two plays later, Burress beat Randall Gay to give the Steelers a 7-3 lead.</p>

<p>I&#8217;m not saying that losing Seymour won&#8217;t hurt. However, I think it  easier to adapt to losing a player prior to the game the
an it is to adjust on the fly.</p>

<p>You&#8217;re right, I did underestimate the Steelers injuries. I believe Bell was the linebacker who I was remembering. I knew Bettis had a decent game, but I forgot he came in because of the Staley  injury.</p>

<p>I do put a lot of faith into Belichick&#8217;s game-planning skills. I also put a lot of faith in the player&#8217;s ability to execute the game plan. That combination has worked pretty well over the last few years.</p>

<p>I&#8217;ve also seen Dillon&#8217;s numbers against the Steelers over the past few years. I don&#8217;t believe he&#8217;s going to have the same sort of day he had against Indy, but his presence likely means that the Pats will have more than 6 rushing attempts on Sunday. This could keep the Steelers from selling out in pass coverage and should also increase the time of possession.</p>

<p>I&#8217;d be surprised if Moreland even plays. Lately, Asante Samuel and Randall Gay have been the starters, Troy Brown&#8217;s been the nickelback, and Poteat came off the bench as the 4th corner/garbage time player. I know Poteat&#8217;s certainly not a world-beater, but he inspires slightly more confidence than Earthwind.</p>

<p>I just took a quick look at the Jets&#8217; scores during the regular season. It actually looks like they have a number of low scoring games with a couple of high scoring affairs. I went to the numbers because I recalled not being too impressed when I watched them play, but I only saw three Jets games all season and one of those was one of the Jets&#8217; worst games.</p>

<p>I think you might be underestimating the Pats linebackers and safeties. Yes, they had a bad day against Pittsburgh. However, in the two games against the Jets, the Pats held the league&#8217;s leading rusher to 103 yards and the Jets rushing attack as a whole to 152 yards.</p>

<p>If both teams play the way they&#8217;re capable of playing, it&#8217;ll be close. What kind of fan would I be if I didn&#8217;t pick my team in a close game? <img src='http://raoli.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif' alt=':-)' class='wp-smiley' /> </p>]]></content:encoded>
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